Friday, September 5, 2008

Unemployment getting worse...



Unemployment has reared its ugly head ever higher. The recent Bureau of Labor statistics data probably is overstating the rate somewhat at 6.1% (the initial data generally only captures larger employers), but we have clearly entered into the "ugly" realm of labor statistics. The only sector demonstrating growth in the last quarter has been health care - which is hardly the ideal growth engine of the economy.

I don't generally see unemployment as being strongly related to stock prices, but it certainly speaks volumes about the general consumer sentiment and will undoubtedly influence stock markets. What makes visibility tougher, however, is that oil has continued to decline with an increasingly less optimistic economic picture. Oil's price increases have been attributed to the stock market's difficulties this year, so there is some assumption that declines will have the reverse effect.

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